Monthly Archives: September 2021

AB test, Huber, my pet dog, smart or not

Huber, my pet dog, is smart. He knows when I will go outsider without taking him and when I will take him go to play. He knows it from my dressing based on his past experience.

Normally, I take him with hike dressing and waist bag to store my mobile phone, tissue,…. Now let me a test.

A scenario: I wear a sleeveless sweater, no waist bag, no mobile phone, no mask. I take a little garbage to go drop into garbage box outside room. Huber is watching me, does not go to the door and follows me.

B scenario: I wear my sport shirt, tie hiking bag around my waist, put mobile phone into bag, and take my mask. Huber is watching me, swaying his thin small tail, running to the door, waiting there. When I open the door, he ran out. Good Huber, smart boy.

Device graph – cross-device link

In modern society, many of us have multiple devices,such as desktop pc,mobile phone,pad,et at and are surfing the internet using different devices. Some may surf using different browsers such as Google, Bing, Baidu, Firefox, ……. Cookies in different devices and browsers are unique. For example, I read news paper in CNA using chrome and have assigned a cookie ID to me. Next time, I read news in CNA using Firefox using same device, and is assigned another cookie id. Then from cookie id, I have 2 different identities, i.e. different person. Now the question is, can we identify the the two cookie ids referring to one person?

Simple way is to ask users to create an account and login every time they consume contents in your platform. Thus, the user account can link different cookie ids among different devices or browsers.

But if users do not want login, have a way to do it? Technically, it can. This is called device graph, i.e. based on available cookie data, link different cookie ids to one unique identify, referring to one person.

Cookie records all the behaviors in the surfing, e.g. dwelling time, visiting url, click, ip address, device types (e.g. iphone, samsung S20, huawei P40, PC, …), browser type (e.g. chrome, firefox, safari, bing, baidu). It looks like

  • Cookie-id = 1234, IP:0.0.0., visiting url: wordpress.com at 21:00:00 20210908, browser: firefox, device: pc, …

For each cookie-id, we can aggregate behaviors in the history with different window, e.g. last 30 days, last 60 days, last 90 days, and extract a high-dimensional feature to characterize the cookie-id.

Then it needs to group similar cookie-ids into a cluster. From the view of pattern recognition and machine learning, it is a supervised cluster problem. If there are some login user available, these login users can give us some golden answers about which cookies must be in the same cluster. Thus, it is becoming a semi-supervised clustering problem.

Clustering can also be viewed from graph theory. We can calculate similarity score between any pair of cookies to measure the probability of the pair cookie that is from the same identity (Only need to keep high probability candidate). Then a cookie graph is built, node being cookie-id, and edge being weight to measure link strength. Now any graph cut algorithm can be exploited to solve the clustering problem. Graph cut can identify sub-graph in which all cookie ids is identified as the same identity.

Device graph is very useful technology in ads targeting, personalized recommendation.

Ads targeting

As a publisher platform, broadcast companies create content to attract users to their platform, and earn money by ads operation or by content subscription. Because media company is business driven, and they do not have enough manpower to develop own ads technology such as user tracking, ads placement, ads optimization, ……, they use third-party service such as Google DoubleClick. Based on Google technology, the media company can get real-time data about how users react to the ads displayed to them, e.g. which ads unit displayed to users (impression), whether user click the ads or not. From ads click information, in-house data scientists can develop machine learning model (lookalike model) to predict how probability a user will click an ads. Thus, ads targeting will be implemented, i.e. targeting ads to precisely tailored audience. Thus, it can improve click through rate (CTR) and drive traffic.

Big internet tech companies such as Google, Facebook, Baidu have ads targeting products. But there is intention that media companies like to build their in-house technology because of data privacy and they do not want depend on third-party service too heavy. Building in-house technology can let them easily customized ads targeting model to support niche business requirements, and improves quick response to business.

How to build ads targeting model?

Firstly, the problem is formulated as: given an ads – user pair, predict if user click the ads or not. Thus, from machine learning point, it is a binary classification problem.

Secondly, collect data to prepare training samples to learn a ML model. Collect ads-user pairs already displayed in the platform. If using Google DoubleClick, you can get the real-time impression log data. From these log data, you will know which ads unit impress the audience, and whether the audience click the ads. If the user click the ads, the impression is positive (1). Otherwise, it is negative (0). Thus, each ads-user log pair is tagged as 1 or 0.

Thirdly, represent the ads-user pair as a feature vector. In lookalike model, it try to find potential audience with similar behavior what they already know. Thus, ads information can be ignored. It only need to represent a user using a vector. This vector characterizes the user history behaviors in the platform from various dimension. How to use feature to represent a user, please refer to your-browsing-behavior-expose-your-gender-age-ethnicity.

Lastly, you can train any supervised machine learning model to do prediction. In my case, a simple weighted linear classifier works good, which is like mean of positive sample, negative sample, plus discriminative info comparing with a background model. A/B test on some ads unit shows promising results.

After the model learned, we can rank audiences based on how much probability the audience will click the ads, and selected top-N to do ads targeting.

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